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Real-time forecast of Hurricane Sandy had track and intensity accuracy

25 February 2014

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A real-time hurricane analysis and prediction system that effectively incorporates airborne Doppler radar information may accurately track the path, intensity and wind force in a hurricane, according to Penn State meteorologists. This system also can identify the sources of forecast uncertainty.

"For this particular study aircraft-based Doppler radar information was ingested into the system," said Fuqing Zhang, professor of meteorology, Penn State. "Our predictions were comparable to or better than those made by operational global models."

Zhang and Erin B. Munsell, graduate student in meteorology, used The Pennsylvania State University real-time convection-permitting hurricane analysis and forecasting system (WRF-EnKF) to analyse Hurricane Sandy. While Sandy made landfall on the New Jersey coast on the evening of 29 October 2012, the analysis and forecast system began tracking on 21 October and the Doppler radar data analysed covers 26 through 28 October.

Source: Penn State University